Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
